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黄金未来几年去向盘中，但天然气可能走牛
2014-04-12, 4:36 PM
Legendary and widely-acclaimed mining expert Pierre Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada (FNV) and President of Newmont Mining (NEM) from 2002-2006, recently spoke with Financial Sense for a wide-ranging interview on the mining industry, gold, and, lastly, natural gas. Do you think gold will go much lower than where it's at now? “The last buyer—the buyer of last resort—in terms of gold has been the Chinese. And their paying threshold is $1250. That's where they stick their hands out and say give it to me. And that's why gold stopped there. You know, we heard Goldman talk about $900 gold and the Chinese decided at $1250 we'll take anything you want. And they absorbed 2800 tonnes at that price, which is enormous—enormous! And they're still there. So, I think the floor is pretty pretty solid. I would give it very very little odds that we would break that $1250-1260 floor; not that it can't happen, but you have to understand for that to happen we'd have to have a disgorgement on top of the natural supply that we have and I think we're done with the gold ETF disgorgement. I think that we're done when in fact the COMEX is replenishing its supply—the net longs are back in.” When do you think gold will start to rise again? “To me, the only reason why gold will go up is if we start to see inflation coming back in the US. Until we start to see inflation, my view is that gold is going to go sideways, because at the end of the day gold is the proof in the pudding. We keep talking about how the government has printed all of these billions, has inflated the balance sheet, and is doing all of these things—but there's no sign of inflation. Why? Well, the reason is very simple: because there's no velocity of money. The banks have not been lending and if you look at Europe it's even worse—the banks have been shrinking. So, it's not only that the velocity of money is not going up—it's shrinking… So, you're not seeing inflation in Europe, you're almost seeing deflation, and in the US you're not seeing it. So, until you start to see that, I sort of think that the gold price will go sideways.” So, even though you're not super bullish on gold over the next couple of years, you are however on natural gas. Can you explain why? "If you look at storage [supplies]—I'm not going to say it's at an all-time low, but it is certainly at like a 10-year low or even 20-year low—it is frightening how low it is. And there's no way in the world that they're going to be able to replenish the storage between now and the next winter. The rig count in the US right now is still at 300 and some, which is almost, again, like a 10-year low. So, with that, there's no way they're going to be able to replenish [supplies]. And if we have just an average winter next year, we are going to see $15 gas, simply because it's not there. They're not going to be able to get the gas fast enough. So, yes, I'm very very keen on natural gas for the next 24 months and both Seymour and I are very large shareholders in Birchcliff, which is highly leveraged [to natural gas]." To hear this full interview with legendary mining a
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  • Natural gas prices (UNG) turned higher today after the Energy Information Administration reported an increase in supplies far lower than expectations.

With historically low inventory levels, tighter EPA regulations, and current Ukrainian tensions, energy expert Robert Rapier told Financial Sense in a recent interview that there’s a good chance we’ll see spikes in the price of natural gas this year.
During the winter, record levels of cold and snow in the U.S. created a record drawdown of natural gas inventories, which are now at 11-year lows.
Normally, that would be enough to support higher prices in the near-term, but Rapier sees tighter EPA regulations creating a long-term bullish environment for natural gas as well.
The largest amount of electricity production in the U.S. has traditionally come from coal, which is also to blame for 80% of carbon emissions and potential warming effects, according to Rapier.
In 2015 and 2016 new regulations will go into effect where coal-powered plants must meet the highest emissions standards in the industry. With this trend only increasing over time, Rapier said to expect coal plants shutting down at an accelerating rate, also noted by the EIA in their recent Annual Energy Outlook.
Not surprisingly, with natural gas taking the lead to replace coal, many of the shutdowns are taking place around areas with abundant natural gas supplies, like the Marcellus Shale.
Rapier also sees the increasing trend towards renewables, like wind and solar, as bullish for natural gas as well.
“Renewables are going to continue to ramp up, but coal is firm power. Firm power is on-demand power and natural gas is even better than coal in that respect because it can respond very quickly to fluctuations. So if you put in a lot of solar [or wind] power, technically that has to be backed up 100% because [they]…may produce zero output at some point…and natural gas is ideal for that.”
Given all the bullish factors Rapier listed, Financial Sense host Jim Puplava asked whether natural gas producers, which benefit as the price rises, are currently undervalued. Rapier answered:
“Very rarely do I see such a large disconnect in the price of a commodity and the price of the companies producing that commodity; and I see that right now in natural gas. I made a conviction buy a couple of months ago. I said there’s no way that Devon Energy (DVN) can stay where it is. It was trading at $59 and so I bought it. And I don't buy a lot of stocks. I tend to buy and hold, but they were hitting 52-week highs last week so some of them are starting to move up. Some people are starting to recognize that these guys are undervalued. But I see very good years for the natural gas producers.”
However, Rapier cautioned investors not to focus on short-term profits and said, “I've seen companies languish for a very long time. Sometimes you have to be patient. Again, that goes back to Warren Buffet. He’s patient; he buys; he sees value...take the long view.”

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