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西·李佛摩尔预测核心-16大图表告诉你一切
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| Chapter8. The Livermore MarketKey第八章 利弗莫尔市场要诀Many years of mylife had been devoted to speculation before it dawned upon me that nothing newwas happen in the stock market, that price movements were simply beingrepeated, that while there was variation in different stocks the general pricepattern was the same. 许多年来，我将自己的生活完全奉献给了投机事业。现在，我终于领悟到，股票市场没有任何新东西，价格运动一直重复进行，尽管不同股票的具体情况各有不同，但是它们的一般价格形态是完全一致的。 The urge fell uponme, as I have said, to keep price records that might be a guide to pricemovements. This I undertook with some zest. Then I began striving to find apoint to start from in helping me to anticipate future movements. That was noeasy task. 正如前面所说，我感受到一种迫切的需要，即采取适当的价格记录，使之成为预测价格运动的指南。我以极大的热情投入这项工作。后来，我开始努力寻求一个出发点，来帮助我预期未来市场运动。这并非易事。 Now I can look backon those initial efforts and understand why they were not immediately fruitful.Having then a purely speculative mind, I was trying to devise a policy fortrading in and out of the market all the time, catching the small intermediateate moves. This was wrong, and in time I clearly recognized the fact. 现在回头来看往日这些初步尝试，就能理解为什么当时不能马上取得成果了。当时，我满脑子都是投机意识，我的目的是要制定一种策略，终日在市场里买进卖出，捕捉小规模的日内变动。这是不对的，幸亏我及时清醒地认识到这个错误。 I continued keepingmy records, confident that they had a genuine value which only awaited mydiscovery. At length the secret unfolded. The records told me plainly that theywould do nothing for me in the way of intermediate movements. But if I wouldbut use my eyes, I would see the formation of patterns that would foretellmajor movement. 我继续维持自己的行情记录，对其中包含的真正价值充满信心，相信这些价值只等自己去挖掘。经过长期努力，其中的秘密终于展现出来。我的行情记录明白地告诉我，它们不会帮助我追逐小规模的日内波动。但是，只要我瞪大眼睛，就能看到预告重大运动即将到来的价格形态正在形成。 Right then Idetermined to eliminate all the minor movements. 从此以后，我决定抹去所有微小的运动。 By continued closestudy of the many records I had kept the realization struck me that the timeelement was vital in forming a correct opinion as to approach of the reallyimportant movement. With renewed vigor I concentrated on that feature. What Iwanted to discover was a method of recognizing what constituted the minorswings. I realized a market in a definite trend still had numerous intermediateoscillations. They had been confusing. They were no longer to be my concern. 通过持续、密切研究多种多样的行情记录，我终于认识到，如果要对即将到来的重大运动形成正确的意见，时间要素是至关紧要的。于是，我浑身是劲，集中研究市场这方面的特性。我力图发现一种方法，来识别构成较小波动的成分。我意识到，即使市场处于明显趋势，其中也会包含许多小规模的振荡过程。过去它们令人混淆，但是，现在对我已经不是什么问题了。 I wanted to findout what constituted the beginning of a Natural Reaction or a Natural Rally. SoI began checking the distances of price movements. First I based my calculationon one point. That was not good. Then two points, and so on, until finally Iarrived at a point that represented what I thought should constitute the beginningof a Natural Reaction or Natural Rally. 我打算弄清楚自然的回撤行情或者自然的回升行情的初始阶段是由什么构成的。因此，我开始测算价格运动的幅度。起初，我计算的基本单位是一个点。这并不合适。后来是二个点，以此类推，直到最终得到结论，了解到构成自然的回撤行情或者自然的回升行情初始阶段的波动幅度。 To simplify thepicture I had printed a special sheet of paper, ruled in distinctive columns,and so arranged as to give what I term my Map for Anticipating FutureMovements. For each stock I use six columns. Prices are recorded in the columnsas they occur. Each column has its heading. 为了便于说明，我印制了一种特殊设计的表格纸，排列出不同的列，通过这样的安排来构成我所称的预期未来运动的地图。每一个股票的行情都占六列。其价格按照规定分别记录在每一列内。这六列的标题分别如下： First column isheaded Secondary Rally. 第一列的标题是次级回升。 Second is headedNatural Rally. 第二列的标题是自然回升。 Third is headedUpward Trend. 第三列的标题是上升趋势。 Fourth is headedDownward Trend. 第四列的标题是下降趋势。 Fifth is headedNatural Reaction. 第五列的标题是自然回撤。 Sixth is headedSecondary Reaction. 第六列的标题是次级回撤。 When figures arerecorded in the Upward Trend column they are entered in black ink. In the nexttwo columns to the left I insert the figures in pencil. When figures arerecorded in the Downward Trend column they are entered in red ink, and in thenext two columns to the right, the entries are also made in pencil. 如果把价格数据记录在上升趋势一栏，则用黑墨水填入。在其左面的两列里，都用铅笔填写。如果把价格数据记录在下降趋势一栏，则用红墨水填入。在其右侧的两列，也都用铅笔填写。 Thus when recordingthe prices either in the Upward Trend column or in the Downward Trend column Iam impressed with the actual trend at the time. Those figures in distinctiveink talk to me. The red ink or the black ink, used persistently, tells a storythat is unmistakable. 这样一来，不论当我将价格数据记录到上升趋势一列，还是记录到下降趋势一列，都能够对当时的实际趋势形成强烈印象。把那些数据用墨水颜色明显地区分，就会对我说话。不论是红墨水还是黑墨水，一旦持续使用，就会明明白白地讲出一个故事。 When the pencilremains in use I realize I am simply noting the natural oscillations. (In thereproduction of my records later on, bear in mind that the prices entered inlight blue ink are those for which I use a pencil on my sheets.) 如果总是用铅笔记录行情，我就会意识到，现在记录的只不过是自然的振荡。（后面我将展示我的记录，请注意，书上用浅蓝色印刷的数字就是我在自己的表格上用铅笔记录的数字）。 I decided a stockselling around $30.00 or higher would have to rally or react from an extremepoint to the extent of approximately six points before I could recognize that aNatural Rally or Natural Reaction was in the making. This rally or reactiondoes not indicate that the trend of the market has changed its course. Itsimply indicates that the market is experiencing a natural movement. The trendis exactly the same as it was before the rally or reaction occurred. 我断定，在某个股票价格达到30.00美元或更高的情况下，仅当市场从极端点开始回升或回落了大致6点的幅度之后，才能表明市场正在形成自然的回升过程或自然的回撤过程。这一轮回升行情或者回落行情并不意味着原先的市场趋势正在发生变化，只是表明市场正在经历一个自然的运动过程。市场趋势与回升或回落行情发生之前完全一致。 I would hereexplain that I do not take the action of a single stock as an indication thatthe trend has been positively changed for that group. Instead I take thecombined action of two stocks in any group before I recognize the trend haddefinitely changed, hence the Key Price. By combining the prices and movementsin these two stocks I arrive at what I called my Key Price. I find that anindividual stock sometimes has a movement big enough to put it in my UpwardTrend column or my Downward Trend column. But there is danger of being caughtin a false movement by depending upon only one stock. The movement of the twostocks combined gives reasonable assurance. Thus, a positive change of thetrend must be confirmed by the action of the Key Price. 请让我解释一下，我并不把单个股票的动作看作整个股票群趋势变化的标志。为了确认某个股票群的趋势已经明确改变，我通过该股票群中两个股票的动作组合来构成整个股票群的标志，这就是组合价格。也就是说，把这两个股票的价格运动结合起来，就可以得出我所谓的“组合价格”。我发现，单个股票有时候能够形成足够大的价格运动，大到足以写入记录表中上升趋势或下降趋势栏。但是，如果仅仅依赖这一个股票，就有卷入假信号的危险。将两个股票的运动结合起来，就能得到基本的保障。因此，趋势改变信号需要从组合价格变动上得到明确的验证。 Let me illustratethis Key Price method. Strictly adhering to the six movement to be used as abasis, you will note in my subsequent records that at times I record a price inU.S. Steel if it only has had a move, let us say, of 5 1/8 points because youwill find a corresponding movement in Bethlehem Steel, say, of 7 points. Takentogether the price movements of the two stocks constitute the Key Price. ThisKey Price, then, totals twelve points or better, the proper distance required. 现在让我来阐述这一组合价格方法。我将严格坚持以6点运动准则作为判断依据。你会注意到，在我下面列举的记录中，有时候美国钢铁的变化仅有比如5点，与此同时伯利恒钢铁的相应变化则可能有7点，在这种情况下，我也把美国钢铁的价格记录在相应栏目内。原因是，把两个股票的价格运动组合起来构成组合价格，两者之和达到了12点或更多，正是所需的合适幅度。 When a recordingpoint has been reached – that is, a move of six points average by each of thetwo stocks – I continue to set down in that same column the extreme price madeany way, whenever it is higher than the last price recorded in the Upward Trendcolumn or is lower than the last price recorded in the Downward Trend column. Thisgoes on until a reverse movement starts. The later movement in the otherdirection will, of course, be based on the same six points average, or twelvepoints for the Key Price. 当运动幅度达到一个记录点时--也就是说两个股票平均都运动了6点时--从此之后，我便在同一列中接着记录此后任一天市场创造的新极端价格，换言之，在上升趋势的情况下，只要最新价格高于前一个记录便列入记录；在下降趋势的情况下，只要最新价格低于前一个记录便列入记录。这个过程一直持续到反向运动开始。当然，后面这个朝着相反方向的运动，也是基于同样的原则来认定的，即两个股票的反向运动幅度达到平均6点、组合价格达到合计12点的原则。 You will noticethat from then on I never deviate from those points. I make no exceptions. Nordo I make excuses, if the results are not exactly as I anticipated. Remember,these prices I set forth in my records are not my prices. These points havebeen determined by actual prices registered in the day’s trading. 你会看出，从那时起我从没有偏离过这些点数。从不例外。如果结果不是确实如我所需，也不找借口变通。请记住，我在行情记录中写下的这些数字并不属于我个人。这些点是否满足，是由当日交易过程中的实际价格运动所决定的。 It would bepresumptuous for me to say I had arrived at the exact point from which myrecord of prices should start. It would also be misleading and insincere. I canonly say after years of checking and observation I feel I have arrivedsomewhere near a point that can be used as a basis for keeping records. Fromthese records one can visualize a map useful in determining the approach ofimportant price movements. 如果我宣称自己的价格记录方式已经达到了尽善尽美的地步，那就太自以为是了。那样说是误导的、不真诚的。我只能说，经过多年的检验和磨合，我觉得自己已经接近了某一点。可以以这一点为基础来维持行情记录。从这些记录出发，我们就能够获得一张形象化的地图，它对判定即将到来的重大价格运动很有用处。 To give an illustration:After the rapid advance all stocks had following the declaration of war inEurope, a Natural Reaction occurred in the whole market. Then all the stocks inthe four prominent groups recovered their reaction and all sold at new highprice – with the exception of the stocks in the Steel group. Anyone keepingrecords according my method would have had their attention drawn veryforcefully to the action of the Steel stocks. Now there must have been a verygood reason why the Steel stocks refused to continue their advance along withthe other groups. There was a good reason! But at the time I did not know it,and I doubt very much that anyone could have given a valid explanation for it. However,anyone who had been recording prices would have realized by the action of theSteel stocks that the upward movement in the Steel group had ended. It was notuntil the middle of January 1940, four months later, that the public was giventhe facts and the action of the Steel stocks was explained. An announcement wasmade that during that time the English Government had disposed of over 100,000shares of U.S. Steel, and in addition Canada had sold 20,000 shares. When thatannouncement was made the price of U.S. Steel was 26 points lower than its highprice attained in September 1939 and Bethlehem Steel was 29 points lower,whereas the prices of the other three prominent groups were off only 2 1/2 to12 3/4 points from the high prices that were made at the same time the Steelsmade their highs. This incident proves the folly of trying to find out “a goodreason” why you should buy or sell a given stock. If you wait until you havethe reason given you, you will have missed the opportunity of having acted atthe proper time! The only reason an investor or speculator should ever want tohave pointed out to him is the action of the market itself. Whenever the marketdoes not act right or in the way it should – that is reason enough for you tochange you opinion and change it immediately. Remember: there is always areason for a stock acting the way it does. But also remember: the chances arethat you will not become acquainted with that reason until some time in thefuture, when it is too late to act on it profitably. 试举例说明。若干年前，正当所有股票都经历了快速上涨行情后，欧洲战事爆发了，于是整个市场都发生了自然的回撤。后来，那四个显要股票群里的所有股票都收复了全部的回落幅度，并且再创新高——除了钢铁股股票之外。在这种情况下，只要按照我的方法维持行情记录，任何人都会把注意力全部转移到钢铁类股票的表现上来。此时此刻，必须找出充分的理由，才能解释钢铁类股票没有和其它股票群一道上涨的原因。是有很好的理由！然而，当时我并不知道这个理由，因此我很疑惑，以为没有人能够对此做出合理的解释。无论如何，记录行情的人都能看出，钢铁类股票的表现说明了该群体的上升运动已经终结。直到1940年1月中旬，也就是四个月之后，有关事实才被公开，钢铁股的表现才算得到了解释。有关方面发布了一则公告，说那是英国政府卖出了超过10万股美国钢铁公司的股票，与此同时，加拿大也卖出了2万股。当这则公告发布时，美国钢铁的股价比它在1939年9月创造的最高价低了26点，伯利恒钢铁则低了29点，相比之下，其他三个显要股票群中的股票仅仅比它们和钢铁类股票同期到达的最高价位下降了2到12点。这一事例证明，在你本当买进或卖出某个股票时，力图找出“好理由”的做法是荒唐的。如果你一定要等知道那个理由后才动手，就会错失良机。未能在适当的时机采取适当行动！投资者或投机者从来所需了解的唯一理由，就是市场表现本身。无论何时，只要市场的动作不对劲，或者没有按照应有的方式动作——这就是充分的理由，足以让你改变自己的意见，而且要立即改变。记住：一只股票之所以有这样那样的动作，总是自有它的理由。然而，你还应当记住，情况往往是这样的，直到未来某个时间之后，你才能了解这个理由，而那是一切都已经太晚，不可能再从中获利了。 I repeat that theformula does not provide points whereby you can make additional trades, withassurance, on intermediate fluctuations which occur during a major move. Theintent is to catch the major moves, to indicate the beginning and the end ofmovements of importance. And for such purpose you will find the formula ofsingular value if faithfully pursued. It should, perhaps, also be repeated thatthis formula is designed for active stocks selling above an approximate priceof 30. While the same basic principles are of course operative in anticipatingthe market action of all stocks, certain adjustments in formula must be made inconsidering the very low-priced issues. 我重复一遍，如果你打算利用重大市场运动中途的微小波动来做额外的交易，这里的准则是不会有什么帮助的。这套准则的目的在于不着重大市场运动，指明重大行情的开始和终结。就此目的而言，如果你诚心奉行这套准则，就会发现它们具有独到的价值。或许我还可以重申，本准则的对象是价格大约在30美元以上的活跃股。虽然其基本原则同样适用于预期所有股票的未来变化，但是如果研究价格极低的股票，就应对准则进行适当调整。 There is nothingcomplicated about it. The various phases will be absorbed quickly and with easyunderstanding by those who are interested. 其中并没有什么复杂之处。要是你感兴趣，很快就能接受各个阶段的内容，并且很容易理解它们。 In the next chapteris given the exact reproduction of my records, with full explanation of thefigures which I have entered. 下一章，将要原样展示我的行情记录，还要详细解释我所填入的数据。 Chapter9. Explanatory Rules第九章 规则说明1. Record prices in Upward Trend column in black ink. 1．在上升趋势栏记录价格时，用黑墨水。 2. Record prices in Downward Trend column in red ink. 2．在下降趋势栏记录价格时，用红墨水。 3. Record prices in the other four columns in pencil. 3．在其余栏记录价格时，用铅笔。 4.(a) Draw red lines under your last recorded price in theUpward Trend column the first day you start to record figures in the NaturalReaction column. You begin to do this on the first reaction of approximatelysix points from the last price recorded in the Upward Trend column. 4.(a) 当你开始在自然回撤栏记录数据时，第一天要同时在上升趋势栏最后一个数据下标一条红线。当市场发生回落行情、且下跌幅度距离上升趋势栏最后一个数字约6点时，开始转换记录。 (b) Draw red lines under your last recorded price in theNatural Reaction column the first day you start to record figures in theNatural Rally column or in the Upward Trend column. You begin to do this on thefirst rally of approximately six points from the last price recorded in theNatural Reaction column. (b) 当你开始在自然回升栏或上升趋势栏记录数据时，第一天要同时在自然回撤栏最后一个数据下标一条红线。当市场发生回升行情，且上升幅度距离自然回撤栏最后一个数字约6点时，开始转换记录栏。 You now have twoPivotal Points to watch, and depending on how prices are recorded when themarket returns to around one of these points, you will then be able to form anopinion as to whether the positive trend is going to be resumed in earnest – orwhether the movement has ended. 现在你已经有两个关键点可供观察，根据市场在这两点附近的表现，就能够形成自己的判断，到底原有的趋势确实即将恢复呢——还是原来的市场运动已经告终。 © Draw black linesunder your last recorded price in the Downward Trend column the first day youstart to record figures in the Natural Rally column. You begin to do this onthe first rally of approximately six points from the last price recorded in theDownward Trend column. © 当你开始在自然回升栏记录数据时，第一天要同时在下降趋势栏最后一个数据下标一条黑线。当市场发生回升行情、且上升幅度距离下降趋势栏最后一个数字约6点时，开始转换记录栏。 (d) Draw black linesunder your last recorded price in the Natural Rally column the first day youstart to record figures in the Natural Reaction column or in the Downward Trendcolumn. You begin to do this on the first reaction of approximately six pointsfrom the last price recorded in the Natural Rally column. (d) 当你开始在自然回撤栏或下降趋势栏记录数据时，第一天要同时在自然回升栏最后一个数字下标一条黑线。当市场发生回落行情、且下降幅度距离自然回升栏最后一个数字约6点时，开始转换记录栏。 5.(a) When recording in the Natural Rally column and a price isreached that is three or more points above the last price recorded in theNatural Rally column (with black lines underneath), then that price should beentered in black ink in the Upward Trend column. 5.(a) 如果正在自然回升栏记录数字，最新到来的价格比自然回升栏内用黑线标记的最后一个价格高了3点或更多，那么该价格就应当用黑墨水记入上升趋势栏。 (b) When recording inthe Natural Reaction column and a price is reached that is three or more pointsbelow the last price recorded in the Natural Reaction column (with red linesunderneath), then that price should be entered in red ink in the Downward Trendcolumn. (b) 如果正在自然回撤栏记录数字，最新到来的价格比自然回撤栏用红线标记的最后一个价格低3点或更多，那么该价格就应当用红墨水记入下降趋势栏。 6.(a) When a reaction occurs to an extent of approximately sixpoints, after you have been recording prices in the Upward Trend column, youthen start to record those prices in the Natural Reaction column, and continueto do so every day thereafter that stock sells at a price which is lower thanthe last recorded price in the Natural Reaction column. 6.(a) 如果正在上升趋势栏记录价格，新价格的回落过程达到了大约6点的幅度，则转到自然回撤栏记录这些价格，此后每一天，只要该股票的价格低于自然回撤栏最后记录的价格，就继续在该栏记录。 (b) When a reactionoccurs to an extent of approximately six points, after you have been recordingprices in the Natural Rally column, you then start to record prices in theNatural Reaction column, and continue to do so every day thereafter that stocksells at a price which is lower than the last recorded price in the NaturalReaction column. In case a price is made which is lower than the last recordedprice in the Downward Trend column, you would then record that price in theDownward Trend column. (b) 如果正在自然回升栏记录价格，新发生的回落过程达到了大约6点的幅度，则转到自然回撤栏记录这些价格，此后每一天，只要该股票的价格低于自然回撤栏最新记录的价格，就继续在该栏记录数据。万一在自然回撤栏记录的最新价格低于了下降趋势栏最后记录的价格，就转到下降趋势栏记录价格。 © When a rally occursto an extent of approximately six points, after you have been recording pricesin the Downward Trend column, you then start to record those prices in theNatural Rally column, and continue to do so every day thereafter that the stocksells at a price which is higher than the last recorded price in the NaturalRally column. © 如果正在下降趋势栏记录价格，新发生的回升过程达到了大约六点的幅度，则转到自然回升栏记录这些价格，此后每一天，只要该股票的价格高于自然回升栏最后记录的价格，就继续在该栏记录。 (d) When a rally occursto an extent of approximately six points, after you have been recording pricesin the Natural Reaction column, you then start to record those prices in theNatural Rally column, and continue to do so every day thereafter that the stocksells at a price which is higher than the last recorded price in the NaturalRally column. In case a price is made which is higher than the last recordedprice in the Upward Trend column, you would then record that price in theUpward Trend column. (d) 如果正在自然回撤栏记录价格，新发生的回升过程达到了大约6点的幅度，则转到自然回升栏记录这些价格，此后每一天，只要该股票的价格高于自然回升栏内最后记录的价格，就继续在该栏记录。万一在自然回升栏记录的最新价格高于了在上升趋势栏最后记录的数据，就转到上升趋势栏记录价格。 (e) When you start torecord figures in the Natural Reaction column and a price is reached that islower than the last recorded figure in the Downward Trend column – then thatprice should be entered in red ink in the Downward Trend column. (e) 当你开始在自然回撤栏记录数据时，如果新的价格低于下降趋势栏内最后记录的数字，则应当将这个价格用红墨水记录在下降趋势栏。 (f) The same ruleapplies when you are recording figures in the Natural Rally column and a priceis reached that is higher than the last price is recorded in the Upward Trendcolumn – then you would cease recording in the Natural Rally column and recordthat price in black ink in the Upward Trend column. (f) 与上述规则相同，当你开始在自然回升栏记录数据的时候，最新的价格高于上升趋势栏内最后记录的价格，则停止在自然回升栏的记录，将这个价格用黑墨水记录在上升趋势栏。 (g) In case you hadbeen recording in the Natural Reaction column and a rally should occur ofapproximately six points from the last recorded figure in the Natural Reactioncolumn – but the price did not exceed the last price recorded in the NaturalRally column – that price should be recorded in the Secondary Rally column andshould continue to be so recorded until a price had been made which exceededthe last figure recorded in the Natural Rally column. When that occurs, youshould commence to record prices in the Natural Rally column once again. (g) 如果正在自然回撤栏记录数据，一个回升过程幅度达到了距离自然回撤栏最新记录的数据大约6点——但是，这个价格并没有向上超过自然回升栏最后记录的价格——就应当将这个价格记录在次级回升栏，此后始终在该栏记录，直到最新成交价格向上超越了自然回升栏内最后记录的数据。当后面这种情况发生时，就应当重新转到自然回升栏记录数据。 (h) In case you havebeen recording in the Natural Rally column and a reaction should occur ofapproximately six points, but the price reached on that reaction was not lowerthan the last recorded figure in your Natural Reaction column – that priceshould be entered in your Secondary Reaction column, and you should continue torecord prices in that column until a price was made that was lower than thelast price recorded in the Natural Reaction column. When that occurs, youshould commence to record prices in the Natural Reaction column once again. (h) 如果正在自然回升栏记录数据，一个回落过程达到了大约6点的幅度，但是回落行情所及的价格并不低于自然回撤栏中最后记录的数字——就应当将这个价格记录到次级回撤栏，此后始终在该栏记录，直到最新成交价低于自然回撤栏内最后记录的价格。当后面这种情况发生时，就应当重新转到自然回撤栏记录数据。 7. The same rulesapply when recording the Key Price – except that you use twelve points as abasis instead of six points used in individual stocks. 7. 同样原则也是用于记录组合记录——不过这里以12点作为基础，而在单个股票情况下以6点为准。 8． The last pricerecorded in the Downward or Upward Trend columns becomes a Pivotal Point assoon as you begin to record prices in the Natural Rally or Natural Reactioncolumns. After a rally or reaction has ended, you start to record again in thereverse column, and the extreme price made in the previous column then becomesanother Pivotal Point. 一旦在自然回升栏或者自然回撤栏开始记录，则下降趋势栏或上升趋势栏中最后记录的价格立即成为关键点。在一段上冲行情或回落行情结束后，我们在相反的栏目中重新开始记录数据，此时，先前栏目中记录的极端价格就成为另一个关键点。 It is after twoPivotal Points have been reached that these records become of great value toyou in helping you anticipate correctly the next movement of importance. ThesePivotal Points are drawn to your attention by having a double line drawnunderneath them in either red ink or black ink. Those lines are drawn for theexpress purpose of keeping those points before you, and should be watched verycarefully whenever prices are made and recorded near or at one of those points.Your decision to act will then depend on how prices are recorded from them on. 正是在上述两个关键点形成后，这些行情记录具有了极大价值，可以帮助你正确预期下一轮重大运动。这些关键点的下方标有两道红色或黑色墨水线，以吸引你的注意力。标注这些线的目的很明确，就是要将这些点始终放在你眼前，无论何时，只要新成交价格位于在这些点附近，就应当十分谨慎地密切关注市场。你的决策取决于从此之后的价格记录。 9.(a) When you see black lines drawn below the last recorded red-inkfigure in the Downward Trend column – you may be given a signal to buy nearthat point. 9.(a) 当你在下降趋势栏看到用红墨水纪录的最后价格下方标注了黑色线时，你也许会在该点附近得到买进信号。 (b) When black linesare drawn below a price recorded in the Natural Rally column, and in the stockon its next rally reaches a point near that Pivotal Point price, that is thetime you are going to find out whether the market is strong enough definitelyto change its course into the Upward Trend column. (b) 如果在自然回升栏看到某个价格下方标注了黑色线，那么当该股票在下一轮上冲过程中接近了该关键点价位时，正是发现市场到底是否足够坚挺、是否能明确改变路线进入上升趋势的时机。 © The reverse holdstrue when you see red lines drawn under the last price recorded in the UpwardTrend column, and when red lines are drawn below the last price recorded in theNatural Reaction column. © 反之亦然。当你在上升趋势栏看到用黑墨水记录的最后价格下方标有红线时，或者当你在自然回撤栏看到最后价格下方标有红线时。 10.(a) This whole method is designed to enable one to seeclearly whether a stock is acting the way it ought to, after its first NaturalRally or Reaction has occurred. If the movement is going to be resumed in apositive manner – either up or down – in individual stocks by three points, or,in the Key Price by six points. 10.(a) 设计这一整套方法的目的是让我们有能力看清楚，当某个股票首次出现自然回升或自然回撤现象后，其后续动作到底是否属于原趋势状态的应有表现方式。如果原先的市场运动将以明确的方式恢复，则不论上升、还是下降，市场都会穿越先前的关键点——对于单个股票来说，穿越的幅度应为3点，在组合价格的情况下，穿越幅度应为6点。 (b) If the stock fails to do this – and in a reaction sellsthree points or more below the last Pivotal Point (recorded in the Upward Trendcolumn with red lines drawn underneath), it would indicate the Upward Trend inthe stock is over. (b) 在上升趋势的情况下，如果该股票未能做到这一点，并且在一轮回落行情中，下跌到最新关键点（记录在上升趋势栏，数字下方标有红线）之下3点或更多，则可能表明该股票的上升趋势已经结束。 © Applying the rule to the Downward Trend: Whenever, after aNatural Rally has ended, new prices are being recorded in the Downward Trendcolumn, these new prices must extend three or more points below the lastPivotal Point (with black lines underneath), if the Downward Trend is to bepositively resumed. © 将上述原则应用到下降趋势，如果下降趋势将以明确的方式恢复，则在一轮自然回升行情结束后，新价格必须向下伸展到最新关键点（数字下方标有黑线）之下3点或更多，新价格将记录在下降趋势栏。 (d) If the stock fails to do this, and on a rally sells threeor more points above the last Pivotal Point (recorded in the Downward Trendcolumn with black lines drawn underneath), it would indicate that the DownwardTrend in the stock is over. (d) 如果该股票未能做到这一点，并且在一轮回升行情中，市场上升到最新关键点（记录在下降趋势栏，数字下方标有黑线）之上3点或更多，则可能表明该股票的下降趋势已经结束。 (e) When recording in the Natural Rally column, if the reallyends a short distance below the last Pivotal Point in the Upward Trend column(with red lines underneath), and the stock reacts three or more points fromthat price, it is a danger signal, which would indicate the Upward Trend inthat stock is over. (e) 如果正在自然回升栏记录数据，但当前的上冲行情在上升趋势栏最新关键点（其下方标有红线）之下，接近该关键点的价位中止，并且该股票从这一点开始向下回落3点或更多，则构成一个危险信号，表明该股票的上升趋势可能已经终结。 (f) When recording in the Natural Reaction column, if thereaction ends a short distance above the last Pivotal Point in the DownwardTrend column (with black lines underneath), and the stock rallies three or morepoints from that price, it is a danger signal, which would indicate theDownward Trend in that stock is over. (f) 如果正在自然回撤栏记录数据，但当前的回落行情在下降趋势栏最新关键点（其下方标有黑线）之上，接近该关键点的价位中止，并且该股票从这一点开始向上回升3点或更多，则构成一个危险信号，表明该股票的下降趋势可能已经完结。 点击在此下载：https://skydrive.live.com/embed?c....Hxmna4I | |
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