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为什么大多人失败？你必须改变方式才行
| 2014-05-02, 2:58 PM | |
| I am someone who trades for a living. I have less than 10 years experience but I feel that the mental energy, time, and effort I have put into trading is enormous. I think I have had success because I did the REAL HARD WORK, work that most people want to avoid. Hard work isn't reading a trading book, applying to a broker, opening a chart and spending hours back testing an EMA crossover. It isn't sitting for 12 hours per day testing the crossover on different markets and then sitting 4 hours waiting for the signal to emerge because in the back test your found it to be 'high probability'. If you are doing this you're wasting your time, spinning your wheels without moving. You are avoiding the truth of trading; 我是以交易为生的人，不到10年的经验让我感到我花了无数的思考、时间和努力。我成功的原因是我做了真正艰辛的努力（译者注:作者把真正艰辛的努力大写，说明很多交易员自已认为做了艰辛的努力，比如测试系统，研究指标，或者时刻看盘都不是真正的努力，没有在点子上，这里work我翻译成努力，比工 作要好）。很多人逃避吃苦。努力不是阅读一本交易书籍，和一个券商打交道（这里作者的意思是听从券商的建议或报告），打开一张图表和花几个小时校验测试（back test中国大多翻译回溯测试或后向测试，可能翻译成预后测试更为准确。凡是用现存在的资料进行测试的都是，翻译校验性测试较准确）一个EMA（幂移动平均线）金叉，。。。。如果你正这样做，你正浪费你的时间。。。 Here is the truth of trading. A trader must face ambiguity and thrive in it. Trading is not about clarity. It is not about setups and signals - not about EMA crossovers, three-higher closes for entries, waiting for pin-bars at support. 这里是交易的真谛。一个交易员必须面对模棱两可，在这之中取胜。交易不是水晶球，不是预先安排（作者注：也可以翻译成预置或预设，但预先安排通俗，这里指提前想好一个计划或方式，或者有一个交易系统或指标，或者提前设置好入场的时间和价格点位）和信号-不是幂移动平均线金叉，三连阳买进，等待支撑 位上出现吊死鬼线。 These sorts of setups and signals may work for a small number of people, but for most aspiring traders they are useless. Why? Because they are NOT the essential part of the trading process. Traders who use setups and signals successfully have already built a mental map of market behavior. Such a map takes into consideration a multitude of things that determine the market's condition and trend. The current position of the market on this map determines the value of a setup and signal in particular contexts. The exact nature of such mental maps is difficult to explain. 这种预先安排和交易信号也许对少数人有效，但对大多的交易员（从交易的角度，作者用aspiring试图说明交易很有吸引力，不用翻译出来）来说，没用。为什么？因为这不是交易中的核心部分。成功使用预先安排和信号的交易员（其实，译者加）早已心中构建了一副市场行为（趋势）图。 Here is what I mean. I could explain a specific setup of mine to you, one that is extremely easy to follow. But I couldn't explain how I interpret the time and sales window and compare it to order flow and market action. And it is this latter interpretation that determines whether or not I pay any attention to the setup. This skill at interpreting time and sales in the context of market action is one I have developed by watching the market carefully and by taking hours and hours of notes on its behavior. It is this experienced interpretation of the current market context that gives me an EDGE over other traders. It is my ability to judge just what the market is trying to do - to judge its technical condition and its trend. Only after I have made this judgment do I start paying attention to setups and signals. It is this skill that lets me see whether my setups are likely to be good ones or bad ones. Most aspiring traders can't make these distinctions. To them all setups and signals look the same. When they take a loss after following one all they simply say "oh it didn't work" and moan about it. 这是我想说的，假设我给你一个预先设置的说明（这个很容易跟进），但我不知道如何解释设置中的Level II（交易软件中的时间和销售窗口，显示实时的买卖盘单子和交易ID），不知道如何去把Level II 和下单流向及市场行为做比较 （作者的意思交易中培养出来的直觉难以解释，信号从直觉中来），是后来才对预先设置做解释，才决定我是否去关注这一设置。对Lelel II解释的技巧是我仔细观察市场和做了大量的笔记下形成的。这让我比其他交易员有优势。我有判断市场行为和下一步的趋势的能力。只有这样后，即我已经有了这样的判断能力，我才去关注交易信号，是这种能力让我知道我的预先设置可能是好的或者是糟糕的。大多交易员区分不了有市场判断能力下产生的预先设 置和信号和没有市场判断能力下产生的预先设置和信号。对他们来说，所有的设置和信号看起来一样，当他们一个亏单接一个亏单时，他们仅仅说：噢，这个信号不管用，呻吟一番。（作者认为信号管用的前提条件是你能判断市场，然后利用信号。不是没有市场判断能力，仅仅用信号来交易，这样结果是亏钱，接下来 他讲为什么这样会亏钱） These people have not started the really hard work - the work they need to do to be successful traders. They will have to spend weeks or months watching markets trade. They will have to take notes on what they observe and start building a mental map of market behavior. They will have to learn to exercise judgment is assessing the market's condition and trend - and to have confidence in their judgments and the courage to act upon them. 只有拼命的工作才能在交易上成功。我经年累月的笔记建立了对市场的蓝图。判断市场行情和趋势是关键中的关键。 On these forums hundreds of people talk about how to be a profitable trader. But most of them not profitable themselves, at least not to any significant degree. Speaking as someone who makes ALOT of money from the markets I say that it was never a specific system or price action setup that finally made me consistently profitable. Rather it was my extensive study of market behavior, of the "tells" it gives that help me identify the market's trend. I had to learn to embrace the inherent ambiguity of all market behavior - to learn that there are no certainties, only probabilities. I had to create my own interpretation of everything, even though I used the knowledge I found in books about the market and trading as a starting point. 论坛中很多人谈论如何成为赚钱的交易员，但他们中大多不赚钱，或者赚很少的钱。和赚了大钱的人交流，我可以说我最后能够稳定盈利，绝对不是来自于一个具体的系统或在价格行为预先设置，而是我广泛的市场行为研究，市场语言帮助我认定市场的趋势。我必须知道市场固有模糊性（模棱两可），懂得市场没有确 定性，只要可能性。即使我开始用过交易书中的方法，我还是不得不建立我自已对市场的所有解释。 I am now able to trade without a system, without a detailed plan but with money management. All the guru's say YOU NEED a specific entry and exit plan but I don't use one. 现在我不需要一个系统，不需要一个具体的计划，不需要一个资金管理方案。 Believe me, the reason MOST traders lose is because they fail to embrace uncertainty. They try to convert the inherent uncertainty of market behavior into something that is a sure thing. They spend fruitless hours trying to find a system of setups and signals that will make money in the markets. They don't learn the $tick relationship to price themselves but instead look online and see what others have found. They are unwilling to do their own thinking . They don't spend the time needed to develop their own skills of market observation and interpretation. 大多人亏损是因为他们做梦在找一个好的交易系统和信号。他们不去探寻价格（ $tick这里歧义）关系，同时用这种关系去反应价格，而去听别人的。不去做自已的思考和不花时间导致失败。 It took me 4 months to become profitable. Many of you won't believe this. But the reason I was able to do it so fast was because I cut out all the crap. You may believe you are working hard - you may have been up for 8 hours last night testing if the strategy you just read about in a trading book is a good one. 我仅仅花了4个月就获利。也许你认为你工作努力，但是你的努力是在测试来自于一本书上的交易系统，那个不算是努力（而是浪费时间）。 But I say you haven't really started doing the hard work yet. Until you do you will remain unprofitable. You won't find the high-probability, profitable setups you seek. To do this you must first study the market's behavior and understand it - learn how to identify the market's condition and trend. Only after you have mastered this aspect of market interpretation that you can you work with setups and signals. It will be your understanding of the market's trend that turns your setups and signals into high probability, profitable ones. Setups and signals by themselves cannot do the trick - they cannot turn you into a successful trader. They do not incorporate and understanding of the market's trend and condition. They miss something that only your personal judgment can provide. 真正努力的工作是研究市场行为和理解市场的行为，明白市场行情的发展和趋势。只有当你够解释市场，然后才能按照设置和信号去做，这样才获利。信号和预设本身带来的设置和信号可能是陷进（你自已理解的市场信号才是正确的）而不能成功。 Let me give you an example that might open your eyes. Have you ever played a shooting game like Call of Duty 4 or Halo 3? The players who are very good at these games haven't got a system, they don't spend up at night thinking about the best place to camp with a shotgun. They practice playing the game. They master it. The difference between a winner and loser isn't that the winner knows a secret, or paid someone to teach them the secrets, or have a system of using power-ups to beat people. The winners win because they are more skillful, they have learned how to play, they have mastered the game. They have a better aim than other player, but this isn't through a combination of indicators like 'Press UP + B'. It's through skill,skill, skill, skill. 成功者和失败者的区别不是成功者知道秘密，或别人告诉他秘密，他们练习技巧。赢家之所以能赢是因为他们有更多的技巧，他们知道如何玩游戏，他们已经精通了游戏，有更好的目标，而不是来自于相关指标。技巧技巧还是技巧。 The same is true of good athletes in any competitive sport. They don't plan their moves against their opponents in advance. Instead they play by following general principles they know work time after time, and they rely on their game experience to make the right play in response to their opponent's action in the context of the specific game situation. Try hard to think about what this means. I think it demonstrates my point quite clearly. The good players are genuinely skilled. They do not follow mechanical rules in their play, rules that anyone could learn by reading a book. Whoever heard of a football player becoming great by reading a book on football?!! But aspiring traders seem to believe they can become good traders, make good profits, by reading books on trading and checking out the statistics of every setup and signal under the sun! What's wrong with this picture? 好的运动员是紧随一个好的规则加上他们的运动经验。我说的应该清楚了，好的玩家是有天才般的技巧。他们不是机械性的跟着规则。 A genuinely skillful trader is someone who can apply his knowledge of market behavior in any context, in any environment. In some situations he knows that certain setups and signals are genuinely useful, but in other situation he avoids those same setups and signals like the plague. CONTEXT! It's all about context. Stop trying to trade on signals and setups that pretend that the market context is always the same. Embrace uncertainty! Embrace ambiguity! Embrace change! 技巧熟练的玩家在任何情况下都可以运用他的市场行为研究所得。有时提前的预置和信号是有用的，但有时他们避免这些。统一的预置和信号（一箭多雕）必须停止。具备不确定性、模糊性、变化的本领。 Here's the situation as I see it for most users on the forum. You've have been spinning your wheels while thinking that you are getting somewhere. You are trying to learn how to trade in the wrong way. I see that most aspiring traders focus all their attention on "set-ups" and on finding out which combinations of indicators work. But these people are never going to become profitable. Why? They are following the advice of trading books that say trading is simple and psychology is everything. So they search for set-ups that 'work', and they hope that these setups can take the guess work out of trading. They want to be "disciplined" and have simple rules that guide all their actions in all contexts. But I have got news for you: you CANNOT take the guesswork out of trading!!! I offer this opinion as someone who started last year with $30,000 and ended with $150,000 without a single losing month. I think I was successful because of the way I went about learning and what I focused on. My learning process was very different from the ones suggested on this forum. I learned that while psychology is huge it is not everything. And while trading is all about simple principles, actually having an edge is NOT simple. It's a myth that you can have a couple simple price or indicator set-ups and make money consistently if only you are disciplined. That's a load of crap. It keeps the dream alive for wannabe traders who never realize what trading is truly about. Trading is about being okay with ambiguity. It's about tolerating confusion. It's about sitting with discomfort and being at peace with it. It's about not having an exact script of when to trade or not to trade, or what's really a high odds trade, and being okay with that. It's about exceptions to the rules. It's about contradiction. It's about uncertainty. 大多交易员集中精力在指标和预置，希望这些能奏效。但从没赚钱。为什么？机械设置（程序化）交易希望摆脱交易中的猜测部分，被称为有原则和纪律，但是我必须告诉你，你不可能摆脱交易中的猜测。 And yet traders left and right want to make it simple and certain. They want to reduce it to a few simple set-ups to trade with discipline. But the market is not simple. The market is all about uncertainty, and complexity, and ambiguity. Simple set-ups could never capture that, and they can never give you a true lasting edge. So what's the solution? Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's how they're being used. The bottom line is that every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets in an unbiased way you can then choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in learning to READ THE MARKET to see when you should use which kind of set-up. Seeing a hammer or whatever near a support means nothing unless you've identified the broader picture and gotten a sense of the kind of tactics you should be using, and what the odds are for different scenarios unfolding. 交易者想找出确定性、简单性，想只需要设置好，按规则就可以赚钱，但市场是不确定的、复杂的和模糊的。预置可能永远抓不住市场的这种性子，也不能带来优势。 是不是预置（程序化）不能赚钱？不是，是看它们如何被使用。最基本的，每个交易员都需要学习如何读懂市场。这意味着简单的规则不能读懂市场（程序化本身不能理解市场）。实时对市场的理解是必须的。一旦你读懂市场了，你才可以去设置市场（程序化）。真正的努力是要花在读懂市场上，一个吊线在一个支撑 位置上（市场会发生反转吗）一点用处都没有，除非你知道大的方向和意识到到你应该使用哪种策略，而且行情向不同方向发展哪种策略有优势。 Now I know most traders try do this to some extent, but their main focus is on the set-ups. It's not on reading the market from minute to minute, hour to hour, figuring out the odds of it doing this or doing that, adapting dynamically, and thinking of trade ideas from all your observation as the day unfolds. Rather, it's waiting for some simple set-up to pop up and then taking it. 我知道大多交易员设法进行预置（程序化）。不是每分钟或每小时都需要去看市场，试图做这或做那，而是等待一些简单的符合市场的设置出现然后安然地去下单。 Is it easier emotionally to have clear set-ups to wait for and trade in this simple manner? Absolutely. But who said 'easy' would make you money? If I've learned anything, it's that the market rewards what is hard to do. It's hard to have ambiguity surrounding your market reads. It's hard being uncertain. It's hard dealing with competing and sometimes conflicting signs. But this is an inevitable part of the trading process. You must stop trying to avoid it by demanding that things to be clear cut. Yes, I know, it is hard to be disciplined when there's so much ambiguity, so much uncertainty about just what trade to make. But as a trader it is impossible to eliminate uncertainty. Don't try to avoid it by looking for simple set-ups or some straight-forward, simple, always- right method. Instead, train your mind to deal with the uncertainty. 让设置符合市场很容易做到吗？当然是的。但是谁说容易能赚钱呢？市场赚钱很难，因为很难读懂和处理市场的模糊性、不确定性和复杂性，外加冲突的信号。这是交易不可避免的一部分。你必须停止这种想法：试图避免不确定性，要求事情变得清楚明白（这是不可能的）。是的，我知道当着如此多的不确定性，很难 变的守纪律。但是作为一个交易员，想取消市场的不确定性是不可能的。不要试图回避这个问题而去寻找一种金钥匙：简单的预置（程序化）、或者直接简单看似正确的方式（这个不管用）。相反，要锤炼自已的思维去和面对和处理不确定性。 How can you learn to do this? You must be constantly engaged with the market, always trying (and often failing) to figure things out. You must learn from experience. In my own case each and every day I would take notes in a journal. I would try to interpret the market's action and try to figure out trades that would take advantage of my analysis. I took note of the ideas that seemed to work and those that did not. I wasn't focused on paper trading, or on recording my emotions, or anything of that sort. Instead I paid strict attention to the market's action and to the information I thought it was giving me about its condition and trend. Everything in my journal was about my own perception and interpretation of the market's action. 如何培养自已适应市场的不确定性？参与市场，总是设法把事情弄明白。从经历中学习。我个人情况是我做笔记，设法理解市场行为，利用我的分析做交易，设法弄清楚这种交易。我的笔记中记录了管用的和不管用的。我不做模拟交易等。相反我i严格的关注市场的行为和我得到的反映市场行情和趋势的信息。我的日 志中都是关于我对市场行为的解释和洞察上。 Day after day, week after week, I kept on making mistakes, wrong calls, being clueless about what was going on, not knowing how I should trade, and not knowing if my views made sense or not. Yet I refused to be discouraged and I continued taking notes and learning. I would view charts and combinations of historical intraday charts, and I'd note certain behavior. For example, I'd study trend day after trend day and try to notice what they had in common and how I could have picked up on it in real time. Then I'd study range days. Then I'd study a price chart of the ES versus the Advance decline line and see what the relationship was across many different days. Then I'd do the same with the ES and TICK chart. And on and on. Over time, this gave me a feel for the markets, and a certain understanding of how certain days differ and many subtle signs and tells for each type of environment and context. 很长时间，我集中在所犯的错误、错误的交易，没有任何头绪。但我一直坚定信念，一直做笔记和学习。我回头研究过过去的日内实时走势图，注意到市场的某种行为。例如，我研究过涨后还涨，注意到这些是共同的，这让我就知道如何实时进场。研究过震荡市场，研究过标普指数期货图形和上升下降指标间的关系， 懂得他们之间许多天出现不同走势之间的关系。同样，我也做了期指和TICK图分析，很多很多。经过很长的积累时间，积累时间给了我市场感觉，给了我真正意义上的理解某些天是怎样不同的，给了我很多微妙的信号怎样不同，告诉我市场运行行情和环境的不同情况。 As for set-ups, I didn't use any predefined ones. I just formed trading ideas and then tried to get in at good trade locations. Even this, which is the art of execution, can be quite complicated. I started realizing that in some environments it's best to wait for pullbacks, in others I need to get in at market or I'll be left in the dust. In some contexts I can buy low and sell high. In others I have to buy high and sell higher.. And so on. 我不用设置交易（预置），不用任何提前设定好的设置。我仅仅形成交易思路，然后设法在一个好的点位（译者注：这里也可能指一个上升的市场，进入多单，一个下降的市场，进入空单或者在一个适合的时间，可能准确的翻译是一个好的价位）入市（这里locations歧义很大）。即使这样，下单也是艺术、 很复杂。我开始认识到有时最好等待市场回调，有时需要立即入市（at market，也可能指市价买卖），否则我将被市场抛下。有些行情，我可以买低卖高，有些我不得不买高卖更高等等。 I became consistently profitable in a timeframe of a few months by doing this. But of course before that I had read 30 or 40 books and so I had a lot of background in technical analysis. I had also worked a lot on my psychology and personal issues. But all of this was in conjunction with a method of learning and trading the markets that was contrary to what the general wisdom says about simple set-ups and exact rules. 通过上述方式，在几个月的时间段内，我变得稳定赚钱。当然，在我读完30到40本交易书籍之前，我已经有了很多技术分析的背景知识。我同时在修炼自已的心理和内在下过很多功夫。所以这些都关联到学习的和市场交易的方式，这种方式是和一般简单的预置和准确的规则（被认为是睿智的）相反。 Now of course you might say that everyone has their own style, some discretionary and some not. Absolutely. But even the successful system traders are very adept at reading markets. They are aware of all of the complexity and ambiguity inherent in it. Their systems might look simple, but they incorporate a deep and understanding of market contexts. Their systems are not just simple, mindless set-ups and signals. 现在当然你也许说每个人都有自已的交易方式，一些人灵活，一些人不是，没错。但是即使是成功的系统化交易员也对非常精通于读懂市场。他们体察到市场固有的复杂性和模糊性。他们的系统也许看起来简单，但他们融入了深深的对市场行情的理解。他们的系统不是仅仅简单，愚蠢的设置和信号。 In the end you have come to a personal realization. Take a look at your trading career thus far. Do you truly believe that if you just learn to focus and take all of your set-ups then your equity curve will reverse and you'll be a consistently profitable trader? Do you think a few simple set-ups could make you rich? I don't mean to imply that you need complex mathematical models. Far from it. What I do mean is that you must develop a mental map of market contexts and the experience and skill to tell where the market currently is on that map. This will take time, effort, and lot's of frustration to develop. And you won't be able to do this if you spend the whole trading day simply waiting for set-ups to materialize. That just won't cut it. 不是我暗示你需要一个复杂的系统化交易，远远不是。我的意思是，你必须培养一个市场行情加经验加技巧的思维模式，这种模式告诉你当前市场在哪里（这里作者指市场处于什么阶段，如是牛市的中期还是后期等等）。这需要时间、努力和大量挫败才能培养出来。 Right now your learning curve is stagnant because you're not truly involved with the markets and their behavior. You are acting like a statistician who is separate from the market. Your day is wasted in waiting mode. You are not in the observing and absorbing mode. Because you fear loss you aren't willing to experiment. This means that you aren't making mistakes and failing regularly, which is what you need to do to learn quickly. 现在，你的学习曲线是静止的（作者认为即信号和系统交易不能对市场有了解，所以对市场没有认识），因为你没有真正的参与到市场和它的行为中。你正扮演的像一个统计学家，他们和市场是分离的（这里指没有真实的市场下单参与且是自已的钱，比如分析师没有下单过，经济学博士没有交易帐号，他们不懂交易市 场，也许他们懂经济市场）。你在等待中白白的浪费了时间。你害怕亏损而不愿去积累经验，这让你没有处于观察和吸收市场的情景中。这意味着你没有犯错和定时的失败，这正是你快速学习需要做的。 So I think you need to make a mental shift. If the path you have followed hasn't brought you to your goal, try my path instead! Prepare to face uncertainty and ambiguity, the essence of financial markets. But don't be afraid. The market isn't out to hurt you. Success in trading requires the ability to be at home with ambiguity and uncertainty, to be able to take a market stance while accepting the fact that you cannot predict the future with any degree of certainty. This is what trading is about. This is why it is an ART. Once you change your focus and your learning process everything, including success, becomes possible. Until then it'll be a distant dream that keeps appearing to be so close and yet stays so far away. 设法模仿走我的路，准备面对不确定性和模糊性。不要害怕。成功的交易要求熟练应对模糊性和不确定性的能力（to be at home 不能译为是在家里），能够采取市场的观点，接受这样的事实：你不可能任何程度上预测到未来的确定性。这是为什么说市场是艺术。 So you need to re-align your thinking and get involved with the markets. Get a trading$CUT$ simulator and trade. Take losses. Make mistakes. Be clueless. Don't be afraid of it. It's okay, that's the only way you'll progress. And trust me, you will progress. 所以你需要重新定位你的想法，参与市场。去交易（作者提到可以模拟）、接受亏损、犯错误，没有头绪。不要怕这些，行了，这是取得进步的唯一办法，相信我，你会进步的。 Face these challenges. The stuff you have heard about learning setups and applying discipline comes from gurus who cannot trade, who give advice based on their failed ventures. These challenges most people find difficult to face. This is why most are not successful. If you can't do this profitable trading will remain a forlorn hope of yours. I wish you all good luck and I hope some of you find this helpful. This is what I am giving back to the trading community, I hope someone of you have an epiphany over what I have said. When I was in the 'holy-grail' search mentality, a friend explained all this to me. I took what he said to heart, and I believe this is why I am consistently profitable today. This the only real secret I can pass along to you as traders. | |
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