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| 2014-06-07, 12:54 PM | |
echnical Developments to Watch:
* Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs. The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Slightly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – SlightlyBullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish. ** All data in this section as of 14:00 GMT Friday **
EUR/USD 
After a quiet start to last week, the EUR/USD jumped on a rollercoaster of volatility on Thursday due to the highly anticipated ECB announcement. As we noted in the wake of the announcement, the ECB’s actions were quite dovish, but the lack of quantitative easing led to an oversold bounce off 1.3500 support. With Thursday’s large Bullish Engulfing Candle*, along with the secondary indicators (MACD and Slow Stochastics) turning higher, the bias is more constructive heading into this week. Moving forward, bulls would like to see a sustained break above the 20-day EMA and previous-support-turned-resistance near 1.3675 to open the door for further gains toward the mid-1.3700s. *A Bullish Engulfing candle is formed when the candle breaks below the low of the previous period before buyers step in and push rates up to close above the high of the previous candle. It indicates that the buyers have wrested control of the market from the sellers. 
Source: FOREX.com
GBP/USD 
With no major data releases, the GBP/USD generally tracked its mainland cousin in consolidating early last week before spiking higher on Thursday. Interestingly, the pair appears to be finding resistance on the underside of its previous 6-month bullish trend line, suggesting that rallies this week may be limited unless the pair can break that ceiling. As of writing midday Friday, the MACD is still showing bearish momentum, while the Slow Stochastics have bounced back to neutral territory after flirting with oversold levels late in May. For this week, the outlook will hinge on the broken trend line in the mid-1.6800s: if the pair can break back through that barrier, a move toward 1.6900 or even 1.7000 is possible this week, whereas a pullback toward last week’s range around 1.6700 is favored as long as that ceiling holds. 
Source: FOREX.com
USD/JPY 
The USD/JPY bucked the trend of its European rivals by rallying early last week, though the bounce did stall out toward the end of the week. Looking to the secondary indicators, the pair’s MACD is turning higher and crossing above the “0” level, suggesting a shift to bullish momentum, but the Slow Stochastics are in overbought territory, pointing to a potential pause or pullback early this week. Looking ahead, the pair remains broadly within its recent 101.00 – 104.00 range, so we have a generally neutral outlook heading into this week. 
Source: FOREX.com
NZD/USD 
The NZD/USD is our currency pair in play this week, due to a number of major data releases out of the New Zealand, the US, and China (see the “Global Data Highlights” section below for more). From a technical perspective, the pair bounced midway through last week and is testing previous-support-turned-resistance at .8515 as we go to press. Meanwhile, the Slow Stochastics have bounced out of oversold territory, though the slower MACD indicator is still below its signal line and the “0” level. For this week, our bias is to the downside as long as the key .8515 level holds, but if rates break back above that level, a more consistent rally toward .8600 or higher is likely. 
Source: FOREX.com More Bark than Bite: ECB Unleashes the Era of Negative Deposit RatesIf you had looked at the EURUSD rate first thing Thursday morning and then compared it with the rate as we approached the end of the European session, it was pretty flat, give or take a few basis points. However, the calm hides a huge amount of volatility in the single currency and a dramatic step into the unknown from the ECB. After ECB President Draghi telegraphed the bank’s desire to target low inflation at last month’s meeting, there was little the Bank could do but act at this meeting. The Bank has thrown the kitchen sink at deflation, and the new actions it has taken includes:
One measure is conspicuous by its absence – QE. Although Draghi did not rule out the prospect of QE, it doesn’t seem like it’s around the corner; hence the market seemed underwhelmed by the new steps taken by the ECB today. Stocks gave back early gains, and after initially falling, EURUSD eventually rallied back to an intraday high of 1.3650 before settling around 1.3610. ECB action irks Germany Draghi may have taken a radical step by ECB standards, but it is likely that the cut to the deposit rate did not come without a fight. Already the German banking lobby group is complaining about the rate cuts, saying that they will hurt savers. The Association of Private Banks said that a negative deposit rate is unlikely to lead to a pick-up in lending, as over-indebted companies in Europe’s periphery don’t want to borrow in this environment. It also argued that a negative deposit rate in Denmark in July 2012 did not boost lending. Interestingly, Draghi said that the decision to cut rates was unanimous; however, if the Bundesbank gets flack at home for this decision, then we doubt it will vote for further loosening down the line. Will negative deposit rates actually work? The Bundesbank isn’t the only one doubting the ability of negative deposit rates to boost lending. Open Europe, a pro-European, pro-reform think tank, said that it is not clear that negative deposit rates or more LTROs will be successful. It argues that ECB surveys already show that demand for loans is weak. Added to this, banks continue to deleverage ahead of ECB stress tests due later this year. It also argued that bank lending remains fragmented, with banks in the core not willing to lend and invest in the periphery. Even with negative deposit rates, it is not clear, due to the above factors, that yield in the periphery will tempt more lending to take place. Added to this, the dramatic tightening in peripheral yield spreads in the last 12 months could actually make lending less attractive in this environment. Don’t expect further ECB action Draghi appeared to take note of German reluctance to cut rates further, when he said that interest rates have reached their lower bound. This is important for EURUSD traders, since a negative rate of 10 basis points is unlikely to lead to a wave of EUR hitting the economy. For that to happen, rates would have to be cut to -3% or -4%; if that is not on the horizon then 1.3539, the low from 1330 BST today, could be a medium-term bottom for this pair. After one month of waiting for action from the ECB, we don’t think this is the start of a prolonged cycle of easing. The bank will want to see the TLTROs get taken up by banks, and after that it could take many months before that money starts to hit the real economy. This still leaves the problem of weak inflation. Even if prices continue to decline, we think that the ECB could refrain from acting, saying that it is waiting to see the impact of TLTROs, potentially for the rest of this year. Where does that leave the EUR? If the USD fails to rally, then we could see further upside, and future weakness in EURUSD could be dependent on a stronger USD. A sliver of good news to keep the bulls alive There was some good news from the Eurozone today: Moody’s, the credit rating agency, said that financial fragmentation in the currency bloc had fallen to its lowest level since 2011. This rating looks at economic indicators, government bond yields and cross-border lending. While there have been positive developments in economic data and bond yields, cross-border lending remains weak, and this index still has some way to go before it is back to pre-crisis levels. Overall, Draghi didn’t disappoint and he threw the kitchen sink at the problem; the trouble is that his kitchen sink is smaller than those of other central banks. We think that the ECB has plateaued here, but if we are wrong, then the next step is QE. The currency impact: As you can see in the chart below, EUR swap rates (Eonia rates), that are based on ECB interest rates, have fallen sharply, and where they go EURUSD tends to follow. Thus, if the ECB stops here and doesn’t cut rates further then we could see this rate start to base, which could protect EURUSD downside. 
Source: FOREX.com, Bloomberg Why is the Market Not Reacting to NFP Reports?As we move into the summer months, it is looking like the ECB could be the key mover of markets, elbowing the US Non-Farm payroll report out of the way. After the May NFP report released last Friday, which showed a 216k increase in payrolls and a 6.3% unemployment rate, the USD actually ticked lower and market volatility, as measured by the VIX index, dipped close to its lowest level since 2007. This was undoubtedly a solid report and it is the first time that the US economy has added at least 200k jobs a month for four straight months since late 1999. Earnings growth is above the Fed’s 2% inflation target at 2.1% for May, and the household measure of employment (an alternative measure within the NFP report), reversed its April decline. While the headline NFP number was roughly in line with expectations, the cumulative effect of jobs growth in the US could have justified a move higher in the USD, in our view. So why is the market so nonchalant when it comes to NFPs? Looking at a chart of EURUSD, volatility may go some way to explain why. As you can see in the chart below, volatility tends to spike during central bank meetings, which have been circled. Thus, central banks seem to be determining the tone of markets right now. While Fed policy is fairly stable for the next few months, the ECB could surprise the market. Eventually we think the Fed will react to the better jobs data and consider rate hikes, but for now it is the ECB effect that is dominating the market. 
Source: FOREX.com Look Ahead: StocksThe major US indices rallied sharply towards the end of the week, inspired by a dovish European Central Bank and another 200,000-plus jobs growth in the US. On Thursday, the ECB unleashed a raft of stimulus measures in a bid to boost economic growth and stave off deflation threats in the euro area. As a result, European stocks rallied sharply and US indices followed suit. The German DAX, for example, hit that psychological resistance level of 10,000 for the first time as we had pointed out previously. US stocks went on to reach fresh record highs on Friday after the May employment report showed 217,000 jobs were added into the world’s largest economy while the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3% as employment total returned to its pre-crisis peak. If this week’s US data releases are better than expected then we could see a positive reaction in US stocks. We will also have lots of data out of China and Europe which may well support US equities next week – see our global data highlights section below. Meanwhile, from a technical point of view, the major US indices remain in strong upward trends. Take the Dow as an example: as can be seen on the chart, the index continues to make higher highs and higher lows, which is a typical characteristic of bull markets. There is a clear bullish trend in place and both the 50 & 200 daily moving averages are pointing higher. For these reasons alone, our outlook for next week remains bullish on the Dow. However the index does look a little bit stretched to the upside, so it could be hit by some profit-taking early next week. This view is consistent with the RSI, which is approaching the overbought territory of 70. What’s more, there are a number of Fibonacci extension levels approaching, which can be thought of as exhaustion points for the market. These extension levels have been plotted from the past three distinct price swings (i.e. the December-February sell-off and intra-month corrections in April and May). Interestingly, there is also the psychological level of 17,000 converging around those Fibonacci extension levels, which are all visible on the chart below. But even if the market sells off from these levels next week, for as long as the bullish trend remains in place, our outlook would correspondingly remain bullish on the Dow and US stocks in general. 
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients Look Ahead: CommoditiesThe price of Brent crude oil fell sharply on Wednesday before recovering towards the end of the week. By Friday morning, when this report was written, it was trading around $109 per barrel. Oil prices fell midweek after the US announced it would suspend its sanctions on Iran’s oil sales for six months. In return, Iran has committed to take steps that halt or roll back its nuclear program. The announcement means Iran will be able to add to the already saturated oil market. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, output from OPEC rose by 75,000 barrels a day to an average of 29.988 million last month, led by Angola and Saudi Arabia. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently suggested that further OPEC oil increases will be needed to meet demand during the second half of the year, the latest economic pointers from China and the Eurozone have been somewhat lacklustre. In a bid to boost economic growth and stave off deflation threats in the euro area, the ECB unleashed a raft of stimulus measures on Thursday and this also aided the recovery of Brent oil prices. Nevertheless demand for oil may not necessarily increase in the same way as envisaged by the IEA. Thus further output increases from the OPEC – which appears more likely now that some of restrictions on Iranian oil exports have been lifted – could simply add pressure on crude prices. However the downside for Brent oil prices will likely be limited. For one thing, the situation in Libya is unlikely to be resolved any time soon. Most of the oilfields and oil export terminals in the country are still under the control of the rebels who are refusing to back down. According to Reuters, Libya's oil exports could fall to “zero” in a matter of days as the state oil company, National Oil Corp, could be forced to divert the only remaining oilfields – Al Jurf and Bouri – to the Zawiya refinery, which provides domestic gasoline to Tripoli. Meanwhile the crisis in Eastern Ukraine continues, prompting G7 leaders to again warn Russia of fresh sanctions for its “continuing violation” of Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, unless the fresh sanctions have immediate impact on Russia’s energy exports they are unlikely to cause any major reaction in prices. The fundamental outlook for Brent oil prices therefore remains stable to slightly bearish, a view which is also shared by the technicals. As can be seen on the weekly chart below, Brent prices have been consolidating in narrowing ranges in recent times in a pennant-like formation. As a result, the 200-day moving average has flattened out and is currently sitting just shy of $109 – where Brent oil was trading some at the time of writing. The bounce-back we saw at the end of the week occurred around the $108 a barrel level. Interestingly this level corresponds with the long-term upward sloping trend line that goes back several years. Although Brent has broken below the trend on a couple of occasions in the past, it has managed to remain above it on a weekly closing basis. However trends are there to be broken and if we do get a decisive break sub-$108 next week, a run towards a shorter-term trend and support at $105.50 could be on the way. And if that level gets broken too then we could soon be talking about 100 bucks for a barrel of Brent oil. Meanwhile, a potential break above the upper resistance trend line ($111) could pave the way for some major gains. 
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients Global Data HighlightsMonday, June 9, 2014 No major economic data Tuesday, June 10, 2014 8:30 GMT UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production Industrial production is expected to bounce back in April after a torrid performance in March. Both industrial and manufacturing production is expected to increase by 0.4%, and if the predictions are correct, then the annual rate of manufacturing growth could expand to 4.1%, which would be the highest level since early 2011. A strong reading for April production data bodes well for Q2 GDP, which could boost the pound. Wednesday, June 11, 2014 8:30 GMT UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate The labour market has been an incredibly strong component of the UK’s economic recovery over the last 12 months. The market is expecting another strong reading, and a fall of 25k is expected in the claimant count rate. If proved correct, this would be the 19th consecutive monthly decline in people claiming unemployment benefits. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.7% in April, which would be the lowest level for more than 5 years. It is also worth watching out for wage data, as weak wage growth is one reason why the BOE has justified keeping monetary policy so lose during the recent economic upswing. The market expects wage growth to moderate to 1.2% in April from 1.7% in March, which would be consistent with the BOE remaining on hold. If we get stronger wage growth, then this could trigger a rally in the pound, and push up Gilt yields. 21:00 GMT Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Decision and Press Conference The RBNZ has a very contentious decision to make as it has entrenched itself in an interest rate hiking cycle that started only two meetings ago and has taken rates from 2.5% to 3.0% currently. Consensus expectations are anything but universal for this decision as the experts are split on whether the tightening will continue with another 25 basis point increase or simply hold steady and wait for more information. The last communique from the RBNZ mentioned that, “the speed and extent to which the Official Cash Rate will be raised will depend on economic data and our continuing assessment of emerging inflationary pressures, including the extent to which the high exchange rate leads to lower inflationary pressure.” If we simply go by that sentence, the PPI Input and Output both increased around 1% from the previous quarter and the NZD is lower against all of the major currencies outside of the EUR and CHF. So despite the recent negative effects of lower powdered milk prices, the RBNZ just might keep on truckin’. Thursday, June 12, 2014 1:30 GMT Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate After a week full of scintillating economic reports including an interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Retail Sales figures, GDP releases, Trade Balance, and Building Approvals, Australia could be forgiven for feeling a little burned out on data. Regardless of that feeling though, Employment carries just as much weight, if not more, than most of the others. Anecdotally, Australia has enjoyed three straight months of consensus beats and looking back over the last three times that happened, the fourth month recorded a drop in jobs, missing consensus each time. If that trend continues, the recent turn above 0.93 in AUD/USD may be short lived. 9:00 GMT EU Industrial Production Production data is expected to bounce back in April after a dismal performance in March. However, the risk could be to the downside after Germany, the currency bloc’s largest economy, saw production data expand at a weaker than forecast 0.2% for April, which pushed the annual rate down to 1.8% from 2.9%. 12:30 GMT US Retail Sales The first quarter of 2014 was a weather-related nightmare for many US citizens who were either afraid of the snow or the cold therefore failing to perform their consumerist duty to spend their discretionary funds on retail products. Economists from every corner of the country jumped at that weather phenomenon as the reason for dismal figures, but now is the time to find out if they were correct in doing so. There was no snow to account for in May, and if Retail Sales fails to live up to the meager 0.5% consensus, doubts may begin to surface as to whether weather shaming was the correct course of action. Friday, June 13, 2014 3:00 GMT Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision Personally, I [Neal] consider this BoJ meeting to be a national travesty of timing. We are now officially two full months away from the vaunted sales tax hike of April 2013, but we only have one release of Retail Sales to show the effects of its introduction. The April figures were predictably weak, falling 4.4%, but did the hangover last longer than the one month? And is one month’s worth of weakness enough to convince the BoJ that they need to boost Quantitative and Qualitative Easing to offset that weakness? Considering the glacial pace with which central banks typically operate, it may not be as the BoJ may wait for more evidence before taking a larger step toward more stimuli. 5:30 GMT Chinese Industrial Production The industrial sector of the Chinese economy is a blunt object type of force that can have far reaching effects across the nation. Recent slides in HSBC Manufacturing PMI have coincided with a decline in Industrial Production, but surprisingly, the HSBC figure rose slightly from last month. While it is still in contraction territory, it at least shows an improvement and that good feeling has bled over to the consensus in Industrial Production which expects a slight improvement from last month. If it fails to live up to expectations, watch for pressure to mount in the AUD. 9:00 GMT EU Trade Balance The Eurozone has run a trade surplus since the start of 2013. The market expects the surplus to retreat to EUR 16.3bn in April from EUR 17.1bn in March. This surplus has helped to boost the current account, which is also in surplus, and is considered one of the reasons why the EUR has managed to remain strong even though Eurozone inflation has fallen consistently for more than a year. A stronger than expected reading could support the single currency. 9:00 GMT EU Employment Change (Q1) This is not top tier data; however, it is worth watching. The market will be looking for an improvement on the 0.1% gain in the first quarter. Last week’s April unemployment rate fell to 11.7%, the lowest level since November 2012. Overall, we don’t think that this data will move the market, however it could be a reminder that the labour market recovery in the currency bloc is improving only at a glacial pace. 12:30 GMT Canadian Manufacturing Sales For the most part, Canada will be taking the week off on the economic data front after a busy week previous. Since this is such a relied upon leading indicator for economic health due to manufacturer’s propensity to be affected by market conditions earlier than the general public, attention could turn for this event. At issue though is the fact that this release is for the month of April, which didn’t bode well on the employment front and had the Bank of Canada taking a more dovish tone. Consensus is for there to be around a 0.9% rise, but may be a little lofty to achieve for the struggling economy in that particular month. 12:30 GMT US Producer Price Index Inflation figures for the US have been moving broadly back in-line with what the Federal Reserve would like them to be for the last few months, and PPI is no exception. Last month’s 0.6% rise was well over the forecasted 0.2% and even beat the 0.5% increase from the month previous. While that pace may be difficult to sustain, illustrated by the 0.1% consensus expectation, a continued positive figure might be just what the Fed ordered. 13:55 GMT Reuters/University of Michigan Preliminary US Consumer Sentiment Index To say US Consumer Sentiment has been a little wishy-washy of late is an understatement. Looking back at the last seven Reuters/UM reads (both preliminary and final), consensus has been alternating between being too optimistic or pessimistic. If that pattern continues, then the 83.2 rebound expected is too pessimistic and the pleasant weather could be more happiness generating than the experts think. | |
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