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| 2014-06-16, 10:41 AM | |
Technical Developments to Watch:
* Bias determined by the relationship between price and various EMAs. The following hierarchy determines bias (numbers represent how many EMAs the price closed the week above): 0 – Strongly Bearish, 1 – Slightly Bearish, 2 – Neutral, 3 – SlightlyBullish, 4 – Strongly Bullish. ** All data in this section as of 14:00 GMT Friday **
EUR/USD 
The EUR/USD generally fell last week after rates stalled out against preivous-support-turned-resistance at 1.3675 early in the week. The secondary indicators are still neutral, suggesting balanced, two-way trade of late and giving few clues about the future direction of the world’s most widely traded currency pair. As of writing midday Friday, the pair is showing signs of stabilizing in the lower 1.35s after back-to-back Doji* candles, but the overall bias remains to the downside as below the 20-day EMA around 1.3600. *A Doji candle is formed when rates trade higher and lower within a given timeframe, but close in the middle of the range, near the open. Dojis suggest indecision in the market. 
Source: FOREX.com
GBP/USD 
After an early dip, the GBP/USD exploded higher in the latter half of the week after BOE Governor Mark Carney suggested that the central bank may raise interest rates sooner than the market expected. The Slow Stochastics are not yet overbought, and the MACD has turned higher above it signal line and the 0 level, showing a shift to bullish momentum heading into this week. However, critical previous / psychological resistance still looms at 1.70 and rates may consolidate below this level this week unless we see a new bullish catalyst. 
Source: FOREX.com
USD/JPY 
The USD/JPY generally sold off in last week’s trade, despite a tick higher in US Treasury yields. The pair still remains within its broad 101.00 to 104.00 range, but based on last week’s price action, rates may revisit the bottom of the range before the top. The MACD supports this notion, with the indicator rolling over and nearing a cross of the key ‘0’ level. For this week, bearish traders may look to target the minor low at 101.40, followed by the bottom of the range in the 101.00 area as long as the 20-day EMA holds as resistance. 
Source: FOREX.com
USD/CHF 
The USD/CHF is our currency pair in play this week, due to a number of major data releases out of the U.S. and Switzerland (see the “Global Data Highlights” section below for more). From a technical perspective, the pair has been in a clear uptrend, though the rally stalled against key psychological resistance at .9000 late last week. For this week, our bias is neutral to slightly bearish, and only a conclusive break and close above the .9000 level would shift the outlook to topside. 
Source: FOREX.com BoJ: I Wish I Knew How to Quit You, QQEAt the most recent Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his cohorts failed to deliver the additional Quantitative and Qualitative Easing that they had promised to bring forth if they felt it was necessary. Apparently it wasn’t necessary, and there are a few reasons why. First of all, they don’t yet have enough data to pull the trigger quite yet. The fear associated with the Abenomics plan of increasing the sales tax in Japan by 3% back in April hasn’t yet subsided, mainly because a true measure of the pain hasn’t been released. Sure, we already saw that Retail Sales fell 4.4% in April, but that was already widely expected; the more important question is whether it carried over to the next month, and we don’t yet have that data. Secondly, inflation in Japan is actually doing what the BoJ wants it to do: rise. The National Core CPI, last released on May 29, rose 3.2% YoY, which was easily the highest level seen in years. If the current rate of inflation continues on its recent trajectory, Japan could see levels unheard of since the 1980s, before the “Lost Decade” began. One of the main goals of QQE was to boost inflation, and in that regard it has the mission has been accomplished thus far. 
Source: www.inflation.eu Finally, the BoJ’s version of stimulus is massive in comparison to the rest of the world relative to the size of their economy. While the Bank of England talks about raising interest rates “sooner than the market currently expects” and the Fed tapers QE in to oblivion, the gap between other central banks and the BOJ probably won’t get any smaller. As for the European Central Bank, they certainly brought something else to the table, but it likely won’t even split the difference between the ECB and the BoJ. So does the BoJ really need to do anything else at the moment? Considering what it’s done so far and the effect those actions have had on inflation to date, it would be hard to argue that more is needed. That being said, if consumption suffers due to the tax increase for a second month in a row, the BoJ may have to put their head down and provide the additional stimulus they promised. Either way, the JPY may not be a particularly popular currency as either more yen become available via QE or continuously increasing inflation makes it less desirable. 
Source: Credit Suisse Look Ahead: StocksIn our last week’s stock outlook, we pointed out that the Dow was fast approaching an exhaustion area as determined by Fibonacci extension levels. On top of this, the RSI was approaching overbought territory above 70. As a result, we issued a warning that “the index does look a little bit stretched to the upside, so it could be hit by some profit-taking early next week.” That’s exactly what’s happened, as can be seen on the updated chart below. On top of profit-taking, some investors have been selling on concerns that the ongoing conflicts in Iraq could turn into an outright civil war and involve US intervention. The situation in Iraq poses the greatest risk to equities next week, in our view. But there are also some key fundamentals factors, including the latest FOMC policy decision and Yellen’s corresponding press conference, which could determine direction too – see our Global Data Highlights section, below, for more details. In a nutshell, good economic data and no change in US interest rate expectations should be good news for stocks. From a purely technical point of view, we could see a rebound at these levels and a potential rally to fresh all-time highs next week. At the time of this writing on Friday morning, the index was testing key support at 16700, a level that previously provided resistance. If the index fails to find its feet here, then we may have to wait for a deeper pullback towards 16600 before we see the buyers potentially retuning. This level corresponds with the bullish trend line that has been in place since February. If support does not hold there then 16550/85, which also corresponds with the 50-day moving average, could be next. However the RSI is once again painting a potentially bearish picture: after reaching overbought levels last week, it is threatening to break its own corresponding bullish trend line. If it does, then it could be a leading indication that the underlying index may soon follow suit. But until and unless that happens, we maintain our technical bullish view on the Dow and US stocks for next week. The potential resistance levels to watch are 16775, 16825, 16875 and 16950 (these levels not drawn on the chart to keep things tidy). Beyond these levels are the Fibonacci extension levels that can be seen on the chart. 
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients Look Ahead: CommoditiesBoth the major crude oil contracts have spiked this week on concerns over supply due to the escalation of the conflicts in Iraq, where the rebels have taken control of several cities in the North and are pressing ahead towards the capital Baghdad. The country could be on the brink of a civil war and US President Barrack Obama has already warned that his government is looking at "all options" including military action, if required. Iran has also promised to help against the insurgency. If the US were to launch strikes, crude oil prices could easily rise further, for Iraq is the second largest OPEC oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, and gold could also find safe haven demand as well. An even worse outcome could emerge if the insurgency spreads to the neighbouring countries. Meanwhile the situation in Libya remains out of control where many oilfields and oil export terminals remain under the occupancy of armed rebels. Thus next week could see a lot more volatility in the oil market, which may provide decent trading opportunities, especially in the Brent contract which has broken a key trend line resistance as can be seen on its weekly chart below. But the effects of the Iraqi conflicts have not just been confined to Brent oil. US oil prices have risen sharply too: WTI has spiked to a high of $107.65 from a base of $102.60 at the start of the week. In the process, the WTI contract has broken out of a consolidation pattern, with the move probably exaggerated by the trigger of stop loss orders above the key $105 mark, which has been a major resistance level over the past several months. As can be seen on the daily chart below WTI has almost reached the 78.6% retracement level of the large downswing from August of last year, at $107.70/5. A potential break above there next week could expose the 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels of the two other price swings at $108.80/8 and $110.00/5. Beyond these levels is the August peak of $112.20/5. On the downside, the key support level is at $105.00 as it was formerly a major resistance level. We expect this level to hold while the conflicts in Iraq are still ongoing, regardless of what happens in the US next week in terms of macroeconomic pointers and crude stockpiles data. 
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients 
Source: FOREX.com. Please note this product is not available to US clients Global Data HighlightsMonday, June 16, 2014 9:00 GMT European Consumer Price Index In the first week of June the European Central Bank took an unprecedented step for a central bank of its size by becoming the first major banking authority to delve in to Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) along with introducing new Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO). The reason for such bold moves was the lack of inflation experienced in the Union over the preceding months. While this month’s inflation figure won’t measure the effect of the new programs, it will at least paint a grander picture of the disease the ECB is trying to eradicate. Tuesday, June 17, 2014 1:30 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia’s Meeting Minutes The RBA made no changes to its policy earlier this month and, in fact, did very little to change any doctrine from the previous statement despite the rising value of the AUD and a few economic measures that failed to measure up. The minutes therefore could reveal very little as there wouldn’t be much more debate that had changed from that previous decision. However, if there was a debate about how to properly communicate their displeasure with the rising AUD, the commodity currency could succumb to some profit-taking. 9:00 GMT European and German ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys Psst! Come here, I’ve got a little secret for you…{looking over shoulder}…Europeans aren’t very happy about the current economic state of the European Union. Oh, that’s widespread knowledge? Well then take it for what it’s worth! Unfortunately, it isn’t worth much as Europeans become ever more disenfranchised. The German ZEW survey has fallen, and missed consensus, for five straight months falling from 62.0 down to 33.1 last month. If you think it can’t fall any further, think again. During the throes of the Great Financial Crisis in the summer of 2008 this survey fell all the way to -63.9, so more pain could be in store as the consensus actually believes this indicator could improve upon last month’s slide. 12:30 GMT US Consumer Price Index It has been drilled in to the brains of the average economy watcher in the US that Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve would prefer inflation to be at or near 2%, and lo and behold, last month CPI hit the nail right on the head. Considering the starting point, there likely couldn’t be a result that would create shock and awe here, but nothing is impossible. If it stays in the 1.5% to 2.5% range, it will likely be overlooked and the other US release coming out simultaneously may get more attention. 12:30 GMT US Building Permits and Housing Starts The housing market has been a frustrating animal for the Fed for years now as it slowly and painstakingly climbs back to levels achieved before the Sub-Prime Crisis destroyed its foundation. While we aren’t quite back to where we were before 2008, strides have been made, slow as they may be. Last month’s 1.08M in Building Permits was the strongest result since mid-2008 and if that momentum can be sustained, frustration could turn in to adulation rather quickly. Wednesday, June 18, 2014 8:30 GMT Bank of England Meeting Minutes The most recent meeting of British banking royalty provided no change in the path of policy, but the growing thought is that they likely won’t be able to sit idle for much longer. UK data continues to improve despite the fact that many believed the growth would temper. The BoE may have no choice but to at least consider raising interest rates, perhaps as soon as the end of 2014. The first sign they could be going that route is for some member of the MPC to start voting or voicing their desire for higher rates, and this minutes release has the potential to be the one. 18:00 GMT Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision, Policy Statement, and Press Conference The Fed has been content to continue tapering their Quantitative Easing program by $10B each meeting since December, and currently stands at $55B. The prevailing train of thought is that they will continue their path of tapering $10B each meeting until they get down to $15 billion where they will either lop off the whole thing, or leave $5B for the final cut. That would leave either 5 or 6 more meetings before the whole thing disappears, either the end of 2014 or the beginning of 2015 respectively. An alternative theory that is starting to gain steam is that they could start cutting $15B each month and be done with it within 4 meetings, meaning it would be gone just in time for Halloween. Considering Yellen has a press conference after this policy decision, the possibility of accelerating the taper can’t be ruled out, but is highly unlikely as they would typically communicate such an abrupt change before implementing. 22:45 GMT New Zealand Gross Domestic Product The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t seem to have any concerns with growth in the island nation this past week as it raised interest rates by 25 basis points. This marked the third meeting in a row that the committee raised rates, and they didn’t indicate that they would be backing off any time soon. Well, if the monetary authorities are satisfied, it would be easy to assume consumers would be as well and that strength could be measured with this measure of GDP. Thursday, June 19, 2014 7:30 GMT Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference Since the SNB set the floor in the EUR/CHF, there hasn’t been much to talk about in relation to Swiss economics, just as the SNB likes it. However, with the ECB launching the alphabet soup of NIRP and TLTRO’s, the EUR may have a hard time finding support, even against the CHF. Perhaps as a shot across the bow to anyone who thinks about shorting the EUR/CHF and challenging their floor, the SNB could make a very loud statement at this meeting that their floor remains steadfast and that they could even raise it if they felt the need. 8:30 GMT UK Retail Sales The UK consumer has been on a roll the last three months beating consensus expectations each time on this Retail Sales figure. Anecdotally, going back to 2007 shows that consensus has been bettered three months in a row on four occasions (not including this one) and was only able to beat it for a fourth month once out of those four. That’s the problem with increased expectations: eventually the reality fails to live up to the hype. Whether the same fate will be felt on this release isn’t yet known, but approaching it with a hint of skepticism be the proper choice. Friday, June 20, 2014 6:35 GMT Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speech Now that we know the BoJ remained on the sidelines this past week by failing to do much of anything with monetary policy, speculation can begin as to what they will do at their next meeting in July. Kuroda’s speeches don’t very often indicate exactly what his central bank will be doing, but whispers have been circulating that the BoJ is discussing an exit plan from the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing instead of a supplement. If Kuroda firmly stamps down those rumors, the JPY crosses may find a little relief particularly against the EUR/JPY which recently broke a rising trend line that had been developing since mid-2013. 12:30 GMT Canadian Retail Sales Canada has a silly habit of releasing economic data well after it is relevant, and Retail Sales is no different. This read will be for the month of April, not May as we are typically accustomed with most other Westernized nations. Regardless, this release still has influence on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy. If this report repeats last month’s negative result, the USD/CAD could climb above 1.10 and camp out for a while. Enjoy this newsletter? Use the share button to post it on your favorite site or subscribe to our RSS feed to receive session recaps daily. | |
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